Begich may win after all

The election for president is over, but the election between Alaska's two candidates for senator is not.  The election ended with Sen. Stevens holding a lead of 3,200 votes over Begich, but that might change.  A report published by fivethirtyeight.com analyzes the possibilities.

"The reasoning behind this is simple: some early ballots have been processed, and among those ballots Begich substantially leads Stevens. A tally of Alaska's 40 house districts as taken from Alaska's Division of Elections webpage suggests that Begich has won about 61% of the early ballots counted so far, as compared with 48% of ballots cast on Election Day itself."

There is no word on when the official results may be given.  Whatever the result, the outcome will be close.

What happened in Alaska...

Alaska voted for Sen. McCain for president of the U.S.  Alaska's 3 electoral votes, however, could not assist McCain's bid for the white house.  

Sen. Stevens and contender Begich are still in a heated battle.  Stevens leads Begich by a slim margin with 99 percent of the vote tallied so far.  About 4000 votes separated the two candidates and the race might not  be decided for another 2 weeks.  If the lead holds up, Stevens will be the first candidate for senate to win an election after being convicted in a court of law.

A Resolution of Troopergate

Gov. Palin has been cleared of any possible ethics violations she faced in the Troopergate saga.  The report, issued the day before polls opened to voters, stated that Gov. Palin legally fired Monegan.

"Petumenos concluded that the Legislature's special counsel, former state prosecutor Steve Branchflower, used the wrong state law as the basis for his conclusions and also misconstrued the evidence.

"(Branchflower) assumed that the governor knew about things and should have stopped them, when the evidence we induced is that she didn't know about them in the first place," Petumenos said at a Monday afternoon press conference."

In Alaska, this matter does not carry much weight as many voters going to the polls today are sided with John McCain.  In other states however, this might give voters an amount of assurance that who they're voting for is a credible politician.

One Final Day, One Final Push!

The general presidential election results for Alaskans has been crystalized a long time ago.  Sen. McCain is expected to win in the state from whence Gov. Palin came from.  The polls show Sen. McCain has a sizeable lead over his rival Sen. Obama with a 57-40% margin.

What is unclear however, is the race for Senate.  Though Sen. Stevens has been convicted in a court of law for illegally accepting bribes, he is still in the race and still insistent about his innocence saying that he has not been convicted until the appeals court rules against him.  This has caused long lines at the early voting centers.

"With long lines forming for early voting at regional election centers, Alaskans are already deciding whether to return 40-year veteran Stevens and 36-year veteran Young, or send Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich or former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz in their place.

If voters throw out the old for the new, neither Democrat would have the clout that seniority carries, particularly in the Senate. They would have the advantage of belonging to what is likely to remain for now the majority party in both bodies."

"Stevens and Young are masters at the game of bringing home federal dollars, which account for a third of the state's economic base. Without the veteran lawmakers, Haycox said the state would likely see a drop off in transportation funds and earmarks -- the controversial provisions added to legislation that directs money to a particular organization or project in a politician's home state.

But both Stevens and Young also are weighed down by a continuing federal corruption probe that has reached deep into Alaska's political structure. Juneau economist George Rogers, who was a consultant to the 1955 Alaska Constitutional Convention, said the election is momentous because the federal corruption inquiry has exposed a need for fundamental change. He said too many political leaders have strayed from the ideals that launched the young state, allowing greed and partisan politics to prevail instead."

Whoever wins the race for Senate, the ramifications of such a win will be enormous.  Alaskans have a voice with their vote and will send someone packing for good.  My best guesstimation is that Sen. Stevens will be sent packing.

Sen. Ted Stevens Imbroglio

Gov. Palin has joined the ranks of others calling for Sen. Stevens to resign his position.  Stevens was convicted of seven felony counts and still insists on continuing his bid for re-election.  Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky voiced his opinion about Sen. Stevens' bid for Senate. 

"'If he is re-elected and the felony charge stands through the appeals process, there is zero chance that a senator with a felony conviction would not be expelled from the Senate,' McConnell said while campaigning in Kentucky."

Alaska Daily News endorses Barack Obama!

Alaska Daily News has published an endorsement of Barack Obama for President.  Despite having their governor, Sarah Palin, in as the vice presidential nominee running with McCain, ADN has decided to endorse their adversary, Obama, because of his "eratic" behavior concerning the economy.  The paper makes the argument that McCain is equivocal to Bush, an argument Obama has been making for quite a while.

Sen. McCain describes himself as a maverick, by which he seems to mean that he spent 25 years trying unsuccessfully to persuade his own party to follow his bipartisan, centrist lead. Sadly, maverick John McCain didn't show up for the campaign. Instead we have candidate McCain, who embraces the extreme Republican orthodoxy he once resisted and cynically asks Americans to buy for another four years.

When talking about their governor Sarah Palin, the newspaper had this to say.

Yet despite her formidable gifts, few who have worked closely with the governor would argue she is truly ready to assume command of the most important, powerful nation on earth. To step in and juggle the demands of an economic meltdown, two deadly wars and a deteriorating climate crisis would stretch the governor beyond her range. Like picking Sen. McCain for president, putting her one 72-year-old heartbeat from the leadership of the free world is just too risky at this time.

ADN has gone out on a limb in this clearly red state and the implications of its endorsement may not be so dramatic.  Voter turnout and the appeal of the Republican Party still strongly favors Sen. McCain.

Ten Days until election day!

McCain enjoys a favorable lead over Obama and the Palin red state will not change its colors to match Palin's new wardrobe, no matter what!  Despite the negativity that has been prevalent in the lower 48 about McCain, Alaska is immune to it all.

The Senate race in Alaska is notably close with embattled Senator Stevens, (who is on trial for abuses of his office by accepting gifts he's termed as loans), trailing by 1% to his Democratic rival Begich.

Palin abused her power.

Gov. Sarah Palin has been implicated by the Alaska state legislature for an "abuse of power" wherein her office was used "in a crusade against the officer".

"Governor Palin knowingly permitted a situation to continue where impermissible pressure was placed on several subordinates in order to advance a personal agenda, to wit: to get Trooper Michael Wooten fired," concluded investigator Steve Branchflower in his report made public Friday.

The committee voted 12-0 for release of the report on Friday.  Since then, slings and arrows have been flying from Palin's attorneys and from Branchflower.  Palin's attorneys have accused Branchflower of "using the probe in a partisan attempt to 'smear the governor by innuendo.'"

But the report also stated that Gov. Palin did not unlawfully fire her public safety commissioner, Wall Monegan.  Other factors were involved, such as Palin's bias towards Whooten.  

The implication of Gov. Palin does not punish her for the deeds she is accused of.  Instead, the attorney general or legislative branch of Alaska will impose sentencing upon her that could include a monetary fine.  However, all of this will not come to fruition until long after the general elections are held.  This would be in January when the Alaska legislature reconvenes.

Gov. Palin's spokesman did issue a statement saying the investigation "vindicated the governor by finding that she acted within her constitutional authority to remove 'at-will' employees," and that findings of the ethics-law violations "required speculation and assumptions" that "could not be supported solely on the basis of the evidence."

The backlash of this negative spotlight could further hinder Sen. McCain's bid for the White House.  In the next week it will be interesting to see how, and if, the Obama camp uses this to a strategic advantage.  The message that Republicans have been running about Obama's unethical involvement in the "Chicago machine" of corrupt politicians and donors could be called into question with this accusation of ethical violations by Gov. Palin.

Troopergate creeps in...

Pictured above: Sarah Palin, Walt Monegan, and state trooper Mike Wooten

The news about the Alaskan legislative investigation into Sarah Palin's alleged involvement with the firing of an Alaskan State Trooper is starting to make its way to headlines.  A 25 page letter written by Todd Palin describes in detail the reasons why he was attempting to get then State Trooper Whooten fired from his position.  Todd Palin denies that his efforts are what caused the trooper to be fired.  There were two key issues that Palin brought up; a time when the governor was accused of having her son Trig in a car without an appropriate car seat, and a time when the governor was denied access to an airplane.  These incidents prompted the ongoing investigation.  

Since she has been chosen as McCain's Vice Presidential candidate, Gov. Palin has switched tactics from transparency to confidentiality regarding the incident.  

A great deal has been said about Mr. Whooten's personal behavior.  There are reports that he shot a deer, or a female moose, and used a Taser on his stepson.  This affront to the Palin family did not go unnoticed.  A light 10 day suspension is reported to have irked Mr. Palin who told public safety commissioner, Mr. Monegan, that he  and Sarah "were not happy with the punishment" and that Todd was "clearly frustrated."

Apparently not everyone has been frustrated with Mr. Whooten's service to Alaska as he remains on duty as a patrol trooper.  He has, so far, declined to be interviewed.

If the decision handed down by the courts is not favorable to Governor Palin, the implications for John McCain could be equivalent to an October surprise, an event unanticipated that shows faults in character.

The investigation into Palin continues

Seven people have agreed to give statements to the Alaskan legislature regarding the Troopergate scandal involving Gov. Sarah Palin.  Palin's chief of staff is among the seven who will give a statement.  The investigation is to be completed by October 10th.  There are signs that McCain's campaign is running interference and have attempted to delay the outcome.  

The Palin effect

Sarah Palin seems to have had a negative effect in her home state of Alaska.  Republican Sean Parnell was favored by Palin to win the general election for the House, but Repbulican Don Young usurped Parnell by 304 votes.  Had Parnell won in the general election, the Republicans would have had a better chance against Democratic candidate Ethan Berkowitz who is now favored to win in the general election.

Also, the native population of Alaska that makes up 20 percent of the vote, have mixed feelings about Gov. Sarah Palin.  Her record as governor has sent mixed messages to the Indian and Eskimo groups.  Hunting for sustenance versus hunting for sport, is an issue that has plagued the government of Alaska who is trying to balance the needs of the native population versus that of the tourist industry.  Nature advocates are also concerned about potential land usage afforded to corporations.

Subponea this!

Todd Palin has refused to obey a subponea order issued by the Alaska legislature in the case investigating Sarah Palin termed Troopergate.  Not much is expected to come out of this though the legislature has stated that the investigation will be completed before election day.  They are setting the completion date for this investigation as October 10. 

Primary results for the Alaska House.

The Republican primaries has yielded a win for U.S. Rep. Don Young over Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell in a close vote.  Only 304 votes separated the two which could be cause for Parnell to call for a recount of the vote.  He has three days to file for the recount or else it will become official.  As a side note, Young is under a cloud of political intrigue as he is being investigated for ties to Veco Corp, an oil field services company.   Three politicians have been sent to the big house already.  Sarah Palin also has ties to Veco Corp.

Troopergate!

In what is being termed by some as a "Troopergate", Palin faces scrutiny from the Alaskan legislative council who've subpoenaed the state staff.  The attorney general says that the state staff will not obey the subpoena order.  The dispute has risen from a previous incident where Palin fired public safety commissioner Walt Monegan.  It has been alleged that she fired Monegan because he wouldn't fire state trooper Mike Wooten, who had gone through a bitter divorce with Palin's sister, before Palin became governor.  If more attention is given to this and more credence is given to the story, this could spell trouble for McCain's campaign.  It has been noted by the Alaskan Daily News that "actions that could slow the probe, possibly past Election Day" have been taken.

Mr. Palin, over the coals and under fire.

State lawmakers in Alaska have voted to issue a subpoena to Todd Palin, husband of Sarah Palin.  The investigation will scrutinize how involved Mr. Palin is in Gov. Palin's decision making processes and what influence, if any, he has over her.  As an oil production manager, Mr. Palin could have a significant impact on Alaska's issues.  The NY Times article can be read here.

PASTOR, I AM GAY

A book published by a member of the Baptist clergy entitled Pastor, I am Gay, has faced stiff opposition from Sarah Palin who tried to have the book removed from the Wasilla Public Library.  Palin was the mayor of Wasilla at the time, but now denies ever making the attempt to have the book banned.  The story is here.

"Sarah Palin frightens the hell out of me."

Protesters gathered on Sunday to stage an anti-Palin rally in midtown Anchorage.  One woman was quoted as saying "Sarah Palin frightens the hell out of me."  The variety of issues protesters had with Palin ranged from polar bears to the Iraq war imbroglio.  A local radio show host called the protestors "socialist, baby killing maggots" as there were signs that read "Bush in a Skirt".  The skinny on the protest can be read here.

All about the Palin, and her texting!

Anchorage Daily News has uncovered potential controversy regarding Gov. Sarah Palin's usage of e-mail accounts.  Palin has two blackberries, one for personal use and one for her political office use.  Sometimes these two usages get intertwined and thus the story you see here.

In other news, the state teacher's PAC has given its endorsement to Democratic contender for the U.S. House, Ethan Berkowitz.  The union has given other endorsements that can be read about here.

Palin speaks at Fort Wainwright

Gov. Palin attended a deployment ceremony that was held on the 7th anniversary of 9-11.  Present at the ceremony was her son, Track, who listened as his mom addressed the crowd.  Track Palin will be deployed with his unit to Iraq for a year.  As campaigning is forbidden at a military base, Governor Palin made no direct remark about her son.  The complete story can be read here.

Fifty Days to go!

With fifty days to go until the election in November Alaska is leaning heavily towards Senator McCain.  The current polling indicates that McCain leads with a 55.2 percentage lead over Obama's 34.2.  In the Senate race, the Democratic candidate Begich leads the Republican candidate Stevens 53.2% to 36.5%.  In the House race, the Democratic candidate Berkowitz is leading by a percentage of 53.5 and the Republican candidate Young is trailing with a percentage of 37.8.  Three major issues dominate the Alaskan mindset.  Oil is of primary concern for the regulation of drilling has direct effects on their economy.  Fishing and tourism are also important as they are the two top employers in the state.  In both 2000 and 2004, Alaskans voted for President Bush.  President Bush Sr. was also favored in 1992 although it is worth noting that Perot had about 28% of the vote then as well.  In 1996 Dole led Alaskan votes with 50.12%.